The attempt to assassinate Donald J. Trump during a campaign rally in Pennsylvania shook the U.S. presidential election to its core. Ten days later, polling shows that Trump has retained his lead over his Democrat opponent, while the attempt on his life has indirectly led to more turmoil in the ranks of the Democrats.

This turmoil is so great that the question of President Biden’s viability as a candidate is now at the forefront of American politics. With calls for him to step down mounting, he formally withdrew from the presidential race on 21st July and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democrat candidate to take on Trump.

At this early stage of a major change in the presidential race, we note that polls show Trump holding a lead over Harris, albeit a slight one. As the election acquires a new dynamic, we retain the baseline scenario – the return to the White House of Trump and ‘America First’ policies.

Across the Atlantic, the EU’s mainstream parties survived June’s EU Parliament elections and retained their majority. While the far right has made inroads, it hasn’t reached power in any of the major countries, with France being the closest call.

The main concern now is that a victorious Trump will endeavour to strike a quick deal with Russia and Ukraine on ending the war, spelling a loss of territory for Ukraine and a very shaky armistice. This might be enough for him, but it surely won’t be for Europe, where the vast majority of governments would view this as opposing their security interests. Steps to shore up European financial support for Ukraine have been strong, and Ukraine is now – along with Moldova – formally on track to join the EU at some point in the future. But Ukraine is on the defensive militarily, and the aid from Europe alone is unlikely to be enough to fully prop up Kyiv.

Despite lofty goals, the green transition remains elusive, and coupled with some questionable national decisions, such as opting to close some nuclear power plants

With Trump’s win, a new era of antagonistic economic relations would follow, but that would merely be a new signal of the slow winding down of open globalisation. Trump will focus on competition with China and try to engage the EU to that effect, while protecting narrow U.S. economic interests. And even if the Democratic candidate wins, China will remain in Washington’s focus and the EU will have to strengthen its economic policies.

The EU has no social media, digital or AI champions among the global heavyweights. Despite lofty goals, the green transition remains elusive, and coupled with some questionable national decisions, such as opting to close some nuclear power plants. When it comes to electric vehicles, the EU is lagging far behind its U.S. (Tesla) and Chinese competitors (BYD, CATL) in terms of plug-in stations and battery development.

In an attempt to catch up, the EU is turning to Serbia, where focus has now shifted to the lithium deposits in rural Jadar valley. Rio Tinto has the rights to explore and mine the quality deposits, while the European – primarily German – auto industry has a vital interest in securing the supply of this critical material that’s required for the effective production of EV batteries.

The Serbian government is going against the grain of public opinion regarding the lithium mine, while concerns over the ecological impact and disruption to life permeate all social strata. The government sees this as an important opportunity to link the Serbian economy across the EV value chain. It also wants to endear itself to Berlin and Brussels at a time when Belgrade’s position on Russia, the dispute over Kosovo and an effectively stalled EU integration process make for strained relations.

Here we see just how palpable the linkage between global competition and local politics is. And Serbia is an integral part of the nearshoring logic of developing supply chains for the future.

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Good art provides a different perspective compared to the reality around us. It provides its own commentary through authentic ideas that are thought-provoking, but that also prompt deep emotional experiences that are often completely inexplicable. True art follows its own ethics and is uncompromising in doing so, while it also encourages us to better understand our own reality. Regardless of whether we’re talking about contemporary creativity or a (re)interpretation of historical heritage, as is most often the case in devising the repertoire of the philharmonic, discovering new angles and identifying fresh approaches represents the essence of artistic aspirations.

The Belgrade Philharmonic Orchestra’s concerts, which are traditionally held in the Great Hall of Kolarac Endowment, have long since become a cult gathering “on Fridays at eight”. They are a gathering point for an audience comprising completely contrasting generations, who all place their trust in the orchestra to lead them on an always new and different journey at the end of the working week.

The essence of art lies in communication, in exposing oneself to new perspectives and in interpreting the world around us. And, finally, its beauty lies in providing solace and a definitive assurance that we aren’t alone in that world

Over the course of two hours of presenting and performing symphonic music live, the Philharmonic Orchestra offers the audience a kind of oasis of serenity and respite from daily life. With its unique abilities, the orchestra protects us against the banality that surrounds us. Its playing creates a kind of halo around the audience, such that, after the concert, everyone is slightly changed by the experience, both the musicians and the audience. They all return to the world from which they found a temporary but safe haven beaming, more composed or even more courageous.

On the one hand, exposing oneself to artistic performances represents a kind of shelter in an attempt to flee reality, particularly taking into consideration the huge energy of a hundred philharmonic musicians fiercely drawing you into the world of symphonic music. However, on the other hand, despite originating long ago, those musical ideas are often alarmingly relevant today. That’s why they serve to encourage constant consideration of the various contexts that make art great and important.

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I consider cultural content as being able to help us overcome stressful situations in life to a large extent. Art is medicinal, often also used as a form of psychotherapy, while going out to a concert, museum, theatre, cinema or some other cultural event can contribute to our overall mental and spiritual wellbeing. Cultural content that we attend can help us to relax, stir new inner strength, open us up to some new perspectives and encourage us to find solutions to everyday problems and make positive changes. Apart from generally filling us with a sense of satisfaction, art can offer us catharsis, help us to face our fears, and better understand the human psyche and social mechanisms.

I also consider it is very beneficial to engage in some kind of art as a hobby or as an amateur. For many people, especially youngsters, this can be, among other things, an instrument of introspection, of the development of communication skills and socialisation, an informal education, but also a form of relief from the monotony of everyday life that confronts us all often.

We recommend that, after sunset on Friday evenings, you come to the front of the Belgrade Youth Centre and enjoy excellent live music from various bands, for free, at the already renowned Concerts on the Small Wall

One thing that’s for certain is that enjoying cultural content will make our lives more beautiful, benevolent and fulfilled. I view a focus on cultural activities as a form of positive escapism, up to the point at which It represents a substitute for real life. Balance must exist between reality and any kind of fiction, or any activity that separates us from reality in the extreme.

Summer in the city, especially with such extreme temperatures, prevents most people from carrying out their regular activities, particularly outdoors. A “cultural kit” to survive the heatwave can include watching a film in an airconditioned cinema, real or virtual tours of galleries and museums, reading books or listening to one’s favourite music at home.

After sunset on Friday evenings, in front of the Belgrade Youth Centre, you can enjoy excellent live music from various bands at the already renowned Concerts on the Small Wall (Koncertima na Zidiću).

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Culture is not an autonomous entity, but rather a segment of the system in which we accept to live and work. As such, I get the impression that sometimes (perhaps even often) its orientation is actually in the service of “stressful events” and the general further dehumanisation of human relations and society. Human life is already subjugated to profit to such an extent that, as someone already said some thirty years ago, commodity (i.e. power) can no longer be criticised by anyone: neither as a general system, nor at least as specific junk that corporation bosses decide to put on the market at some point. So, this is the state of affairs today; a vicious circle that also includes cultural content. You must be extremely attentive and have patience, and seek the contents that offer knowledge, open different perspectives and are founded on the notion of a more just world.

I recommend applying by 31 July for the Pešter Plateau afforestation action in late August, part of an art project by Dušica Dražić. This is an important cultural initiative

When it comes to exhibitions, by the end of this summer you will have been able to see in Belgrade the exhibition Kun – Artist, Labourer, Fighter, then also Hedgehog’s Home – Inventing a Better World, Emotional Maps by Vesna Pavlović, Before the Time and Outside – a retrospective exhibition by Vladan Radovanović, an exhibition of works of international artists addressing the eternal subject of body and space, curated by Dragana Kovačić, and the must-see exhibition The Rotten Smell is You, where you can also see a segment of preserved Merlinka works.

Summer in the city is best spent with periodical trips out of the city, so one should visit Šodroš, Venčac, Gornje Nedeljice, Bor or Zrenjanin. I strongly recommend that you apply by 31st July to join the afforestation of the Pešter Plateau, which will be organised in late August as part of an art project by Dušica Dražić. This is also an important segment of culture.

Culture is certainly an integral part of education and upbringing. It should not be an escape from reality, as it can contribute to better understanding that reality. However, if you ask me, culture is the location and space of resistance.

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Culture can heal both the soul and the mind. For me, art is an integral part of my working life, but also my private life – it is there to relax me on stressful days, enliven quiet hours, motivate me to fantasise, to travel with it (if only in my thoughts), and it is thanks to culture that I discover new knowledge, enjoy new experiences and make new acquaintances.

When it comes to culture, there are numerous advantages to spending summer in the city. When it’s hot, we can cool down at one of the numerous airconditioned cinema auditoriums and gallery spaces. When it’s pleasant, we can enjoy an open-air concert, attend an interesting book promotion, visit one of the numerous cultural events. The ideal combination for me is to spend the summer in a city, but a city that’s located on the coast of a sea or ocean. If you’re a lover of films, urban nightlife and the sea, film festivals like the ones in Venice and Cannes are the right choice for you. If you find that excessively glamorous and pricey, our region has more affordable and closer destinations that also have interesting film festivals: Pula and Herceg Novi.

If you are a film lover who prefers slightly hillier areas with lower temperatures on summer evenings, you can easily head over to Sarajevo, which hosts one of the biggest film festivals in this part of Europe in mid-August. If you are nonetheless spending the summer in Serbia and have had your fill of baking asphalt in the city, July is marked by our country’s most beautiful cinematography event, the Palić Film Festival.

When heatwaves hit, numerous airconditioned cinema auditoriums and gallery spaces offer space for us to think with a cool head

I’m not sure whether focusing on cultural content is a form of escaping reality or an attempt for us to better understand that reality. I would say that we can’t generalise – I believe there are people who can relate to both of these approaches. For me, focusing on cultural content means focusing on my job, which I do – as a communications specialist – in the field of culture and art. A great thing is that I’m able to enjoy doing my job, as well as the fact that, through my work, I’ve also managed to make art and culture a significant part of my everyday life.

As I write these lines, I sit in the park in front of the hotel in Palić, where the Palić European Film Festival is currently underway. I’m also preparing new schedules for the interviews with journalists that festival guests will have tomorrow. A press conference has just ended that included, among others, Bruno Anković, director of the film Celebration, which just a few days ago received the best film award at the Pula Festival.

As the summer continues, I’m awaited by work at the Sarajevo Film Festival, which I also look forward to joyfully.

Photo: Bojana Janjić

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Family-centered healthcare is an approach that involves comprehensive monitoring and treatment of all family members, recognizing that individual health is closely linked to the family’s health dynamics. By treating the family as a unit, healthcare providers can identify and address underlying issues that may affect more than one family member, ensuring more effective and long-lasting health solutions.

Recent advancements in medical technology and health informatics have significantly enhanced the capability to monitor and care for entire families. Electronic Health Records (EHRs) and integrated health systems allow for seamless sharing of medical information among family members and healthcare providers. This integration facilitates early detection of hereditary conditions, chronic illnesses, and mental health issues, enabling timely interventions.

Telemedicine is another contemporary tool that supports family-centered healthcare. Virtual consultations allow healthcare providers to check in on multiple family members simultaneously, making it easier to coordinate care plans and follow-up appointments. Additionally, digital health platforms provide resources for family education and support, empowering families to take an active role in their health management.

By treating the family as a unit, healthcare providers can identify and address underlying issues that may affect more than one family member, ensuring more effective and longlasting health solutions

Numerous case studies have demonstrated the effectiveness of family-centered healthcare. For instance, families with a history of cardiovascular disease have benefited from early screening programs that identified risk factors in children, leading to lifestyle changes that significantly reduced their risk of developing heart disease. Another example is the management of diabetes in families, where coordinated care and education programs have led to better glycemic control and reduced complications for multiple family members.

The future of family-centered healthcare looks promising with the continuous advancements in medical technology and data analytics. Predictive analytics and artificial intelligence are expected to play a crucial role in identifying potential health risks and recommending preventive measures tailored to each family’s unique health profile. Furthermore, ongoing research into genetic medicine holds the potential to revolutionize how hereditary conditions are managed within families.

Family-centered healthcare offers a holistic and integrative approach to health management, emphasizing the importance of monitoring and treating all family members systematically. By leveraging modern medical technologies and adopting a comprehensive care model, this approach not only improves individual health outcomes but also enhances the overall well-being of families. As the healthcare landscape continues to evolve, family-centered practices are poised to become a cornerstone of effective and compassionate healthcare delivery.

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Departing Swiss Ambassador H.E. Urs Schmid captured the essence of Swiss-Serbian relations succinctly, stating: “it has been a whirlwind of remarkable events, with our excellent bilateral ties strengthened and cooperation expanding into new areas like science and innovation, making this the most rewarding posting of my career”. This success stems from decades of achievements across political, economic, humanitarian and innovation sectors.

In the 1990s, Switzerland was among the first countries to offer humanitarian aid to Serbia, laying the groundwork for a comprehensive support framework. This evolved into a robust partnership, marked by the 30th anniversary of the programme supporting Serbia’s European integration reforms two years ago. The Migration Partnership Agreement, which celebrates its 15th anniversary this year, underscores ongoing bilateral collaboration as highlighted by the July 2024 visit of Federal Councillor Beat Jans.

Noteworthy projects like the SME Hub, which offers advisory services to SMEs and partners with Serbian and international financial institutions, illustrate this expanding economic engagement

Over the past 12 years, Switzerland has been instrumental in enhancing the efficiency, transparency and accountability of Serbia’s National Assembly and local assemblies through initiatives like e-parliaments and digital tools. At the local level, Switzerland has established around 100 partnerships, working with local governments to improve service delivery through digitalisation and good governance practices. This includes efforts to boost transparency, citizen satisfaction and governance standards.

Economic relations between the two countries have also flourished. Switzerland is a key trade partner and investor in Serbia. Noteworthy projects like the SME Hub, which provides advisory services to small and medium-sized enterprises and partners with Serbian and international financial institutions, illustrate this expanding economic engagement. Swiss investors consistently rank among the top foreign investors in Serbia, and as interviews with leading figures in the Swiss-Serbian Chamber of Commerce reveal, a strong foundation for continued success has been laid.

Every successful relationship seeks constantly to evolve and grow. In this spirit, future steps in mutual collaboration will probably focus on enhancing inflows of foreign direct investments, particularly those that support sustainable development, advancing Serbia’s scientific and innovative ecosystem, promoting socially responsible business practices and driving the green transformation of the Serbian economy.

Photo: shutterstock

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Aleksandar Vulin, as the ideologue of the “Serbian world”, dubs Vučić “the president of all Serbs”. Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik formally bows to the Serbian President, though it feels like Dodik wants to give the impression that he and Vučić are “co-presidents of the Serbian world”. Dodik has no qualms about seeing Vladimir Putin, unlike Vučić, for whom that would prove politically complex today.

More than a decade on, we can only guess as to whether Vučić, in his liberal – “Protestant” phase, when he often cited Max Weber, envisaged his government and its manifestations exactly in this way, at the “All-Serb Assembly”. Admittedly, the EU future of Serbia and Republika Srpska was mentioned as a commitment in the Assembly’s Declaration, though in a lukewarm, routine way. Unlike the thematically similar document adopted by the government of Boris Tadić in 2011, this one didn’t stress that the struggle over the national issue and the European integration of Serbia are not only not contradictory, but are deeply synergistic. Ideologically charged, and complete with the cordial message of Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, the All-Serb Assembly wasn’t a gathering that classified Serbia and Republika Srpska in the so-called “Collective West”.

In a way, Vučić’s party is also an indirect winner of the EP elections, although Ursula von der Leyen isn’t Angela Merkel, even though she’s shown understanding for Vučić

In order to assuage his “oath keepers”, it turned out that Vučić was able, immediately after Saturday’s Assembly, to join the commemorating of “European Election Night 2024” on Sunday evening, and to cast a symbolic vote. He was welcomed to Belgrade’s Hotel Metropol by EU Delegation Head and Ambassador Emanuele Giaufret. With this gesture, Vučić quickly attempted to swing the pendulum back and show, for the umpteenth time, how well-established and well-functioning his system of mutually functional paradoxes is, as one of the more important parts of his technology of governance. Vučić subsequently conversed over the phone with French President Emmanuel Macron, emphasising that they discussed “strategic cooperation”, which contradicts the dominant anti-Western (pro-Russian) narrative in Serbia’s media sphere. Okay, so Macron isn’t exactly Orban – Vučić’s absolute favourite EU leader – but the Serbian government stresses that Macron is at least capable of listening to the Serbian side and showing a degree of sensitivity. Vučić also spoke with General James B. Hecker, commander of United States Air Forces in Europe and Africa, whom he thanked for the KFOR troops that serve to guarantee the peace and security of Serbs in Kosovo, and expressed his satisfaction with the “mutual trust that has been built”. Vučić’s pro-Putin supporters ignore these moves, branding them “tactical” and not representing Serbia’s core commitment. And that suits Vučić’s marketing.

Despite SNS having signed a Cooperation Agreement with Putin’s United Russia, and despite SNS President and Serbian PM Miloš Vučević having stated that the party shares common core values with the Communist Party of China, we shouldn’t forget that it was back in 2016 that SNS became an associate member of the European People’s Party (EPP), winner of the recent European Parliament elections – meaning that, in a way, Vučić’s party is also an indirect winner of the EP elections, although Ursula von der Leyen isn’t Angela Merkel, even though she’s shown understanding for Vučić, and the Germans referred to Merkel as “Mutti” (Mummy), which is how Vučić treated her politically.

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It was two months ago that Serbia gained a new government, the seventh since 2012. The previous ones left it with one of Europe’s lowest levels of GDP per capita, average income totalling around 46% of the EU27 average and insufficient growth rates. With the average growth rate of 2.7% that Serbia has had over the previous 10 years, it won’t be able to achieve the EU’s average income level for the next 50 years (Source: World Bank). As such, higher economic growth is essential.

There are multiple obstacles to growth that the new government should get to grips with. One of the biggest is corruption. According to analysis conducted by the Fiscal Council, Serbia has been growing at a rate approximately two percentage points (p.p.) below its potential for a decade. Almost half of that reduced growth is a result of weak rule of law and high corruption. By strengthening independent institutions (primarily the judiciary) and reducing corruption levels, Serbia could achieve growth almost 1 p.p. higher.

By strengthening independent institutions (primarily the judiciary) and reducing corruption levels, Serbia could achieve growth almost 1 p.p. higher

Apart from the removing of barriers to growth, energy is also becoming a crucial factor of economic growth and development. As such, the new government’s list of priorities must include reforms in this sector, based on decarbonisation and boosting investments in new capacities to produce electricity (using hydro, wind and solar energy, while considering nuclear energy possibilities). There must also be a focus on market liberalisation and the decentralisation of production that would lay the foundations for higher economic growth in this sector.

Finally, education reform imposes itself as a measure that would have lasting effects on the economy and society. Some possible measures within the scope of this include considering the introduction of compulsory secondary education, reforming ‘gymnasium’ high schools and increasing investments in the quality of educational personnel (and not only in facilities) to raise their standard.

This could all result in long-term growth exceeding 5%, which would enable Serbia to catch up with the EU’s average income level three to four times faster than is currently possible.

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There is no way that the current system could be assessed as being fair. A fair/just tax system is one that burdens people who earn the same amount in the same way, while burdening those who have higher incomes with a progressively heavier burden than those with lower incomes. This is not the case in Serbia’s current system.

The root of the problem with the current solution is the difference in the taxing of income from different sources. For example, income from a salary is treated differently than income earned from copyright or capital, while as of recently we’ve also had the special (softer) treatment of the earnings of so-called freelancers. Representing a story in their own right are the various tax benefits that are determined arbitrarily, which differentiate even within individual categories of employees.

A new system of personal income taxation would have to focus on the total income that a citizen earns over the course of a year, and subject them to progressive tax rates

A new system of personal income taxation would have to focus on the total income that a citizen earns over the course of a year, and subject them to progressive tax rates, taking the taxpayer’s family circumstances into consideration much more. Similarly, the state cannot fail to include certain revenues in the contribution system to such a great extent.

There is a virtual consensus in legal theory on the essential need to reform personal income tax, with differences existing only in the details. This work was planned to be done immediately after the changes of 2000, but was deprioritised due to the introduction of value added tax, which burdened all capacities of the Tax Administration. Since then, the authorities have only occasionally addressed partial tax reforms. These reforms are sometimes conditioned by a need to make up for shortfalls in the tax system, while they are sometimes a result of the fundamentally mistaken policy of enticing investments by offering certain privileged investors tax breaks, and sometimes they are simply the result of pressure from various lobby groups, as is the case with the latest solutions for the taxation of income generated through digital platforms.

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Secondary school enrolment is currently underway in Serbia. It is said that 67,000 eighthyear primary-school leavers are applying for 72,000 spots in secondary schools. And these numbers hide the fact that probably no one has dealt with secondary school programmes – with what is taught and how – for a very long time. There’s no place in this story for special mathematics and IT departments, which are attended by only a few thousand students anyway. I must add to this analysis that the number of first-year pupils enrolled in primary schools in Serbia is 61,000.

Despite the fact that I was expected to advocate for investments in infrastructure, access to technology and further digitalisation, that doesn’t seem wise to me. Given the numbers from the first paragraph, education is the most important direction of technological development.

Every citizen needs to be trained to be a user of the latest technologies, in order for users in Serbia to be interested in testing new products and services

Ever more foreign companies are considering Serbia as a place to locate their computer programming and development sectors. This offers a major development opportunity. For countries with a falling population, it is recommended that all remaining workers “climb” the ladder of industrial worth. However, this means not only bidding farewell to outstanding students, but also dealing with average students and raising the level of their abilities. That means training every citizen to be a user of the latest technologies, in order for users in Serbia to be interested in testing new products and services. That is the route to attracting “complex” development and people with the knowhow required for such a “competition”.

Perhaps you’ve read about how Singapore is providing scholarships for all its citizens aged over 40 who want to learn something new. The speed of technological development means that this is probably necessary for every country, especially ones wanting to compete in the development of new technologies. That’s why I wouldn’t suggest anything epochally new when it comes to technology, as everything new becomes old too quickly. I would instead suggest raising the population’s general level of knowledge regarding the use of technologies, because that is currently the only enduring competitive advantage. Instead of being walls and machines, it is in people and their knowhow.

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At a recent “summit” in Berlin, prominent center-left economists announced a “new consensus” on industrial policy. Their joint declaration was then published in full by the Columbia University economic historian Adam Tooze, who described it as “remarkable both for its capacious agreement on economic and industrial policy principles and the way they are embedded in a reading of the political and geopolitical risks of the moment.”

According to the Berlin declaration, those risks are of two types. There are “real risks” such as climate change, “unbearable inequalities,” and “major global conflicts.” And there are risks such as “dangerous populist policies” driven by “a widely shared experience of perceived loss of control … stemming from globalization and technological shifts.” This second category, we are told, follows from “decades of poorly managed globalization, overconfidence in the self-regulation of markets, and austerity [which] have hollowed out the ability of governments to respond to such crises effectively.”

The group has nine recommendations: to “reorient our policies” from upholding “economic efficiency above all” to focusing on “shared prosperity and secure quality jobs”; “develop industrial policies … supporting new industries and direct innovation toward wealth-creation for the many”; direct industrial policy away from subsidies and toward innovation; design a “healthier form of globalization”; address “income and wealth inequalities”; “redesign climate policies” around carbon pricing and infrastructure investment; support the climate transition in developing countries; avoid austerity “while investing in an effective innovative state”; and “reduce market power in highly concentrated markets.”

A consensus of economists – even well-meaning progressives – is a dangerous thing. Consensus, by its nature, is the enemy of consistency and logic

As I have written before, a consensus of economists – even well-meaning progressives – is a dangerous thing. Consensus, by its nature, is the enemy of consistency and logic.

It is true that ordinary people are angry. Having been brought up on the promise of a middle-class democracy underpinned by stable industrial jobs, many find themselves toiling as serfs in the gig economy. They are ruled by oligarchs, and condescended to by entitled urban professionals, with economists among the worst offenders.

How did this happen? It may be comforting to blame China (or Mexico, or Japan, or even South Korea), but the story properly starts with the breach between labor and anti-war liberals that occurred within the US Democratic Party in the 1970s. That set the stage for President Ronald Reagan and Federal Reserve Chair Paul Volcker’s destruction of US manufacturing and associated unions, followed by the rise of Big Finance and Big Tech in the Clinton era.

Then came further militarization under George W. Bush, which was intended to consolidate US global power and control over resources, notably oil. The US economy, with Europe as an adjunct, came to rest on banks, bombs, bases, and informatics. Netting out gains and losses, hardly a single new manufacturing job has been created in America for four decades.

To address the public’s anger, my friends call for innovation to create wealth “for the many” and to deal with climate change, while also reducing market concentration and power. But innovation is the reason that market power becomes concentrated in the first place. It’s always about increasing wealth for the innovator and his financiers, and about doing more with fewer people, at less cost. That is how our tech oligarchs – Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, Larry Ellison – came to be. Otherwise, we would never have heard of them.

Of course, addressing climate change is a noble goal. But one must not ignore the inconvenient realities standing in the way. The first is the Jevons paradox: increased energy efficiency allows for new energy uses, and thus tends to increase energy consumption. Just look at how much electricity cryptocurrency mining and AI models consume. Second, big renewable energy projects require big mines (which devour energy), vast new infrastructure (ditto), and – to be profitable – low, stable capital costs that are inconsistent with high interest rates. There is a reason why yesterday’s hot projects are now being downsized or canceled.

It is true that ordinary people are angry. Having been brought up on the promise of a middle-class democracy underpinned by stable industrial jobs, many find themselves toiling as serfs in the gig economy

A third, decisive problem is that there is no connection between climate investment and the well-being of the larger population today or even in the near future. Will utility bills, taxes, or interest rates fall as a result? No, they will not. Will new products hit the market because hefty tariffs have kept out goods already produced in China? Of course not. The only way to distribute the wealth benefits of innovation to “the many” is to socialize the entire process. You would need a “soviet of engineers,” as Thorstein Veblen once proposed – like the Manhattan Project or the space program.

But to do any such thing requires state capacity, and the Berlin summiteers acknowledge that this has been “hollowed out” over 40 years of neoliberal neglect and predation. Who will supervise the new industrial policy? With no one home in today’s government, tariffs and corporate subsidies are the tools at hand, and the US Commerce Department has hired consultants from Wall Street to identify who should receive them. Good luck making that work.

The sad reality is that today’s advocates of industrial policy are often the same people who first advanced the idea more than 40 years ago to try to rescue the Democrats in the face of Reaganomics. Back then, at least, it was plausible. Yet now, as in the past, they seem unwilling to confront the banks, the military contractors, or the tech tycoons who now run the West. They do not call for definancialization, disarmament, or (as John Maynard Keynes once did) the socialization of new investment. They seek to rebuild state capacity while leaving in place all the forces that destroyed it.

Meanwhile, vast new political forces are filling the vacuum left by neoliberal policies in America and Europe. Given the damage done, there may be no way to assuage the anger driving those “dangerous populists” toward power. Alas, the kumbayas of an outdated idea are not likely to help very much.

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For years now, good political and economic relations have gone hand in hand. In the words of U.S. Ambassador to Serbia H.E. Christopher Hill, “Everywhere I look in our bilateral relationship, I see progress”.

Indeed, not all topics are equally straightforward to address. Serbia’s journey towards European Union accession remains a complex endeavor, with Washington actively supporting the country’s gradual progress in adopting reforms essential for EU accession, particularly in areas like democratic governance and the rule of law. Moreover, cooperation on regional stability across the Western Balkans and efforts to resolve historical disputes and enhance peace and security in the region represent ongoing and dynamic challenges. In contrast, economic relations between the U.S. and Serbia stand out as a notable success story.

Trade between the U.S. and Serbia has been increasing steadily, facilitated by the pervasive influence of the internet, which has enabled deeper collaboration. American companies are increasingly drawn to Serbia for investment opportunities, while Serbian IT services are finding fertile ground in the U.S. market.

While this phrase may be overused, it aptly encapsulates the narrative of successful bilateral relations between Serbia and the U.S., especially in the fertile ground of technological innovation

American investment across Serbia’s sectors of technology, manufacturing, and services has been substantial, boosted by economic assistance from the U.S. aimed at enhancing growth and stability. Bilateral agreements have further spurred economic cooperation, protected investments and facilitated trade, while Serbia’s efforts to improve its business climate have attracted more international businesses, strengthening ties with advanced economies like that of the States.

The energy sector presents promising collaboration opportunities, particularly in renewable energy and efficiency projects. The U.S. also supports entrepreneurship and innovation in Serbia, fostering startup ecosystems and facilitating access to the U.S. market. Education and workforce development are critical areas of cooperation, with scholarships and programs preparing talented Serbians for modern economic challenges, complemented by initiatives from organizations like AmCham to cultivate business leaders who are aligned with U.S. standards.

Despite challenges like regulatory barriers and the prolonged EU accession process, significant opportunities exist to expand economic ties, contingent upon regional market integration with EU standards. The future of U.S.-Serbian economic relations appears promising and poised to experience increased trade, investment, and collaborative projects. As Ambassador Hill emphasized in his interview for this special edition, regardless of the outcomes of U.S. elections, the overarching strategy of supporting regional political and economic stability and growth will endure, ensuring continuity in U.S. engagement.

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Joe Biden and Donald Trump, representing the Democratic and Republican parties, respectively, faced off months before the November election, setting a new precedent in the electoral calendar. The debate, devoid of the usual live audience and stripped of props or prewritten notes, allowed only a pen, a notepad, and a bottle of water for each candidate. This format, agreed upon after the chaotic 2020 debates, saw two CNN journalists moderating with the power to cut the microphone of any candidate who strayed too far from the question or engaged in excessive vitriol. This sanitized approach aimed to bring order and decorum back to the presidential debates.

Since their previous electoral clash, Biden and Trump have epitomized the deep-seated polarization in American society. While speculation occasionally surfaces about the emergence of other viable candidates from either major party, Biden and Trump have come to symbolize more than just personal rivalries. Their ongoing adversarial relationship highlights the profound divisions that extend well beyond individual animosities, encapsulating the broader societal rifts that define current American politics.

LOOMING QUESTIONS

Despite legal challenges hitherto unseen in U.S. electoral history, with charges ranging from misappropriation of campaign funds to insurrection during the January 2020 riots, Donald Trump remains broadly popular with the Republican base. As court rulings are unlikely to bar him from running in the election, he will be on the ballot in all states. As such, his team is focused on reducing the impact of court proceedings on undecided voters and on soft supporters that might sit the elections out.

Trump still hasn’t decided on his running mate. The pick will tell us a lot about his strategy. Whether he will look to strengthen his own base and choose someone who already endorses his positions (such as Senator J.D. Vance), or to broaden his appeal and choose someone who once challenged him (Governors Marco Rubio and Doug Burgum), or to try to make further inroads into demographics that largely don’t favor him (Elise Stefanik, Ben Carson), he needs to make a carefully measured decision.

In this game, the incumbent president usually plays defense, but Biden has a problem when it comes to addressing Trump’s charges that inflation has reached as much as 50% over the past four years

Biden has different issues. He needs to persuade voters that the economy is in good shape, that macroeconomic numbers are enough for a population that’s concerned about its purchasing power and rising prices. In this game, the incumbent president usually plays defense, but Biden has a problem when it comes to addressing Trump’s charges that inflation has reached as much as 50% over the past four years. The economy is the broad front that Biden must engage on fully and persuasively.

The other front is the one in Gaza, where continued Israeli attacks against Hamas combatants and Palestinian civilians have caused a stir in the U.S. public, despite staunch pro-Israel positions among the vast and bipartisan political majority. Americans of Palestinian origin, and many Arabs and Muslims, were strong Biden supporters in the 2020 elections and have been major contributors to his wins in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. It’s practically impossible for Biden to win the election without also proving victorious in these states.

He has to manage U.S. involvement in Israel’s operations and in the broader Middle East region, while trying to preserve any favorability that he still has among these voters. June’s polls generally favored Trump slightly. He has a lead of one to five percentage points in national polls, while holding a slight lead in several battleground states. Due to the state-centric logic of presidential elections, a Democratic Party candidate usually needs to record a slightly more convincing win to get enough electoral votes. Over the last quarter of a century, a Democratic candidate has won more votes and still lost the election twice, in 2000 and 2016, when Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. Whatever the case, we are probably set for a razor-thin margin of victory.

SPILLOVER EFFECTS

While the world has some experience of a Trump presidency, unease remains regarding what his possible second term would bring. Kyiv and Beijing are probably the most concerned about the outcome.

Kyiv’s predicament is clear: it relies heavily on continued financial support and arms deliveries from the U.S. and European countries to defend itself against Russia. Trump has a Ukraine complex, with the U.S. House of Representatives having impeached him in 2019 for abuse of power in response to his attempt to withhold aid to Ukraine as a way of pressuring Kyiv to investigate Biden’s team. He has been touting his ‘deal-making’ abilities and claiming that, with him in the White House, Putin would have never invaded Ukraine. His hostility towards military aid to Ukraine is now well documented. Thus, Kyiv and European states worry that he would seek to cut some deal with Putin without considering Ukraine’s interests or European security. For Ukraine and Europe, Biden is a trusted and preferred choice. The EU is trying to ringfence its policies in support of Ukraine and is wary of possible trade wars with Trumps’s administration.

The other front is the one in Gaza, where continued Israeli attacks against Hamas combatants and Palestinian civilians have caused a stir in the U.S. public, despite staunch pro-Israel positions among the vast and bipartisan political majority

A trade war is the first thing on Beijing’s mind when it comes to the possibility of a change in Washington. And it’s not as though the Biden administration has been soft: it continued some Trump sanctions (like those on Huawei) and has issued far more radical measures to hurt China’s microchip industry. Beijing is concerned that the Republican Party is far more interested in waging a trade war against China than the Democrats. The ‘new Cold War’ between the U.S. and China is now seen as a reasonable idiom to explain the current state of affairs.

The coming election lacks new, creative and inclusive solutions that could have global appeal, rather seeming to be part of a prolonged domestic cultural struggle. For us, as bystanders and onlookers, this presidential election seems to be more about analyzing and managing possible negative effects than about raising hope.

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